January 21, 2026
January 21, 2026
Procurement in 2026 – Geopolitical upheaval: 7 levers to turn the new world order to your advantage
Listen to this article
One thing is certain: the 2000s are not coming back — and the “golden years” of virtually limitless globalization are over.
What has already begun to emerge in recent years will have an even greater impact in 2026. Geopolitical tensions, the use of tariffs as a means of pressure, and export controls on key raw materials now shape everyday life in many procurement and supply chain organizations.
The geopolitical chessboard: What is the next move for your procurement?
Anyone still hoping that “everything will go back to the way it was” is underestimating the new reality: geopolitical upheaval is increasingly manifesting itself as fragmented global trade, in which political decisions can change supply chains overnight.
Most experts predict that this trend will become even more pronounced in the next 5–10 years.
Example: In 2025, US tariffs on European and international industrial goods reached up to 50% in individual sectors, particularly steel and aluminum, while from 2026 onwards the EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) levies CO₂ costs on imports—putting double pressure on international supply chains.
The message is simple: for those responsible for procurement and supply chains, inaction is now the greatest risk—especially for parts and components that are critical to production and sales.
Geopolitical upheaval: the new world order and the multi-nodal trade patchwork
Short clip from the Tacto webinar on January 14, 2026
Instead of the fairly uniform global trading system we have known until now, a new structure is emerging—whether you call it a “multi-nodal trade patchwork,” “geo-economic blocs,” or “fragmented globalization” is secondary.
The result remains the same: several large trade hubs, each with its own rules, customs duties, and political priorities.
The US is focusing on economic security and domestic production, China is likewise prioritizing the production of critical technologies and components within its own borders, and the BRICS countries are establishing alternative structures.
The EU is trying to preserve rules-based trade, while emerging economies such as Mexico, Argentina, and Morocco are prioritizing their sovereignty and industrialization.
For procurement and supply chain teams, this means there is no longer “the” global market—each region, and in some cases even individual countries within a region, brings its own risks but also new opportunities to the negotiating table.
Cumulative stress: when politics, markets, and tariffs interact
The current situation is not the result of a single crisis, but rather the expression of a lasting structural break: the consequences of the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, technological dependencies, and trade and customs policies increasingly used as instruments of power politics are all intertwined.
The World Economic Forum speaks of an era of “structural volatility”—short-term disruptions in supply chains are therefore no longer the exception, but the new normal.
Example: Critical raw materials – export controls as a geopolitical weapon
Since 2023/24, China has tightened export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite, and various rare earths—materials essential for semiconductors, electronics, defense technology, and the energy transition.
Even the mere announcement of such measures leads to planning uncertainty, longer approval processes, price jumps, and a search for alternative sources of supply.
For European value chains, this makes it clear that political decisions in third countries can suddenly become a bottleneck in their own supply chain.
What does all this mean for procurement in 2026, and what countermeasures can be taken?
In 2026, production-critical parts or raw materials from geopolitically sensitive regions are no longer a purely operational risk—they are a direct threat to revenue and margins.
The key difference from the past is that the speed of escalation has changed dramatically: tariffs can jump by 20–50% within a few hours, sanctions come into force at short notice, and export controls are imposed without sufficient warning.
The core problem: many companies still base their supply chains on the assumption that the geopolitical and regulatory environment is relatively stable—or changes only slowly.
Under current conditions, this is an expensive illusion. The costly consequences only become apparent when it is too late: production downtime, lost customers, contractual penalties.
How procurement and supply chain teams can respond to geopolitical upheaval
Three specific diagnostic questions:
Single source and single region: Which production-critical parts or raw materials depend on a single source or geographical region? (Example: 100% Taiwanese semiconductors, Chinese rare earths)
Reaction time under shock: If a 40% tariff is imposed tomorrow or an export ban is enacted, how long will it take to find alternative sources of supply, and how long will stocks last before production comes to a halt? What is the minimum bridging period with existing stocks?
Investment scenario analysis: What does it cost to develop and qualify alternative sources? And what, by comparison, does a week of production downtime cost?
Four active strategic countermeasures:
Geographic multi-source strategy – moving away from single sourcing: Production-critical parts and raw materials from geopolitically sensitive regions often require geographical diversification. Specifically: identify all single-source and single-region dependencies, and in parallel conduct market research and qualify at least 2–3 alternative suppliers in other geographies.
Technical substitution and material flexibility – decoupling through innovation: Diversify not only geographically, but also technically: component designs with substitution options, alternative materials, or manufacturing processes that serve the same purpose without a product redesign.
Utilize trade agreements and regionalization windows: New trade agreements (e.g., MERCOSUR) open up previously irrelevant sourcing opportunities with significantly reduced tariffs and new supplier clusters.
Operational resilience measures – safety stocks as a buffer: In parallel with diversification, dimension safety stocks intelligently (too much = rising holding costs, too little = shortage risk). Segmentation by criticality and procurement risk helps to make conscious decisions about where stocks are necessary as a strategic buffer.
The role of Procurement & Supply Chain in 2026
In 2026, the logic of largely uninterrupted global trade will be a thing of the past—instead, political, regulatory, and technological disruptions will shape the environment in which we operate.
For companies, this means the decisive factor is no longer whether disruptions occur, but how well they are prepared for them and how quickly they respond.
In the Tacto webinar on January 14, 2026, we explored the diagnostic questions and countermeasures outlined here in greater depth using practical examples.
On the geopolitical chessboard, procurement and supply chain can no longer merely react and put out fires. Now is the time to take the initiative, act even more intelligently, and contribute to the long-term success of the company.
This is precisely where we support medium-sized companies and private equity firms—from rapid risk diagnosis to the implementation of robust procurement and supply chain setups designed to succeed even under changing conditions.
Listen to this article
One thing is certain: the 2000s are not coming back — and the “golden years” of virtually limitless globalization are over.
What has already begun to emerge in recent years will have an even greater impact in 2026. Geopolitical tensions, the use of tariffs as a means of pressure, and export controls on key raw materials now shape everyday life in many procurement and supply chain organizations.
The geopolitical chessboard: What is the next move for your procurement?
Anyone still hoping that “everything will go back to the way it was” is underestimating the new reality: geopolitical upheaval is increasingly manifesting itself as fragmented global trade, in which political decisions can change supply chains overnight.
Most experts predict that this trend will become even more pronounced in the next 5–10 years.
Example: In 2025, US tariffs on European and international industrial goods reached up to 50% in individual sectors, particularly steel and aluminum, while from 2026 onwards the EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) levies CO₂ costs on imports—putting double pressure on international supply chains.
The message is simple: for those responsible for procurement and supply chains, inaction is now the greatest risk—especially for parts and components that are critical to production and sales.
Geopolitical upheaval: the new world order and the multi-nodal trade patchwork
Short clip from the Tacto webinar on January 14, 2026
Instead of the fairly uniform global trading system we have known until now, a new structure is emerging—whether you call it a “multi-nodal trade patchwork,” “geo-economic blocs,” or “fragmented globalization” is secondary.
The result remains the same: several large trade hubs, each with its own rules, customs duties, and political priorities.
The US is focusing on economic security and domestic production, China is likewise prioritizing the production of critical technologies and components within its own borders, and the BRICS countries are establishing alternative structures.
The EU is trying to preserve rules-based trade, while emerging economies such as Mexico, Argentina, and Morocco are prioritizing their sovereignty and industrialization.
For procurement and supply chain teams, this means there is no longer “the” global market—each region, and in some cases even individual countries within a region, brings its own risks but also new opportunities to the negotiating table.
Cumulative stress: when politics, markets, and tariffs interact
The current situation is not the result of a single crisis, but rather the expression of a lasting structural break: the consequences of the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, technological dependencies, and trade and customs policies increasingly used as instruments of power politics are all intertwined.
The World Economic Forum speaks of an era of “structural volatility”—short-term disruptions in supply chains are therefore no longer the exception, but the new normal.
Example: Critical raw materials – export controls as a geopolitical weapon
Since 2023/24, China has tightened export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite, and various rare earths—materials essential for semiconductors, electronics, defense technology, and the energy transition.
Even the mere announcement of such measures leads to planning uncertainty, longer approval processes, price jumps, and a search for alternative sources of supply.
For European value chains, this makes it clear that political decisions in third countries can suddenly become a bottleneck in their own supply chain.
What does all this mean for procurement in 2026, and what countermeasures can be taken?
In 2026, production-critical parts or raw materials from geopolitically sensitive regions are no longer a purely operational risk—they are a direct threat to revenue and margins.
The key difference from the past is that the speed of escalation has changed dramatically: tariffs can jump by 20–50% within a few hours, sanctions come into force at short notice, and export controls are imposed without sufficient warning.
The core problem: many companies still base their supply chains on the assumption that the geopolitical and regulatory environment is relatively stable—or changes only slowly.
Under current conditions, this is an expensive illusion. The costly consequences only become apparent when it is too late: production downtime, lost customers, contractual penalties.
How procurement and supply chain teams can respond to geopolitical upheaval
Three specific diagnostic questions:
Single source and single region: Which production-critical parts or raw materials depend on a single source or geographical region? (Example: 100% Taiwanese semiconductors, Chinese rare earths)
Reaction time under shock: If a 40% tariff is imposed tomorrow or an export ban is enacted, how long will it take to find alternative sources of supply, and how long will stocks last before production comes to a halt? What is the minimum bridging period with existing stocks?
Investment scenario analysis: What does it cost to develop and qualify alternative sources? And what, by comparison, does a week of production downtime cost?
Four active strategic countermeasures:
Geographic multi-source strategy – moving away from single sourcing: Production-critical parts and raw materials from geopolitically sensitive regions often require geographical diversification. Specifically: identify all single-source and single-region dependencies, and in parallel conduct market research and qualify at least 2–3 alternative suppliers in other geographies.
Technical substitution and material flexibility – decoupling through innovation: Diversify not only geographically, but also technically: component designs with substitution options, alternative materials, or manufacturing processes that serve the same purpose without a product redesign.
Utilize trade agreements and regionalization windows: New trade agreements (e.g., MERCOSUR) open up previously irrelevant sourcing opportunities with significantly reduced tariffs and new supplier clusters.
Operational resilience measures – safety stocks as a buffer: In parallel with diversification, dimension safety stocks intelligently (too much = rising holding costs, too little = shortage risk). Segmentation by criticality and procurement risk helps to make conscious decisions about where stocks are necessary as a strategic buffer.
The role of Procurement & Supply Chain in 2026
In 2026, the logic of largely uninterrupted global trade will be a thing of the past—instead, political, regulatory, and technological disruptions will shape the environment in which we operate.
For companies, this means the decisive factor is no longer whether disruptions occur, but how well they are prepared for them and how quickly they respond.
In the Tacto webinar on January 14, 2026, we explored the diagnostic questions and countermeasures outlined here in greater depth using practical examples.
On the geopolitical chessboard, procurement and supply chain can no longer merely react and put out fires. Now is the time to take the initiative, act even more intelligently, and contribute to the long-term success of the company.
This is precisely where we support medium-sized companies and private equity firms—from rapid risk diagnosis to the implementation of robust procurement and supply chain setups designed to succeed even under changing conditions.
